Author: Abigail Nester President Vladimir Putin is in favor of President Donald Trump being re-elected for another four-year term as it directly impacts Russian politics. The main Russian federal agencies targeting the United States election on November 3, 2020 are the Foreign Security Service (FSB) and the Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU). Psychological manipulation using information warfare is much more likely to occur than Russian spies changing votes via software. Instead, Russia aims to create turmoil among racial unrest to amplify a politically-bipolar country with propaganda, hackers, attacks on infrastructure, and general political disinformation. Russia deliberately seeks to create chaos and division in the U.S., in a self-perceived opportunity to protect itself on a global stage. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has had an enormous impact on the current unrest in the U.S., providing Russian intelligence officers with the prime ability to take advantage of the 2020 election. It is important to note that news about Russian intelligence was quiet on mainstream media in the few days leading up to the election, which allowed Russia to use the media as a cover for their operations. Russian interference has been a “decade or more in the making and now makes concerted Russian attacks on U.S. ‘almost impossible’ to defend against.”1 Russia is in no position to fail, as they will certainly affect the public discourse beyond the results of the election. The GRU and the FSB have used online information to breed resentment and dissent between the left and the right-wing factions in the United States. This allowed Russian officers to use the growth of extremism as another advantage. The intelligence operatives infiltrated right-wing groups by exploitation through the use of false information planted on social media platforms. Therefore, operatives can use Facebook, Parler, Telegram, VK, and Twitter for online private groups or chats to incite violence or spread false news that enrages individuals to action. The use of bots can spam hashtags or phrases to affect social media algorithms that pull more controversial posts to the top of the feed. The targeting of these groups extends beyond the general election as any disruption in the country is advantageous in Russia’s perspective. Recently, Facebook has been experiencing the threats of profiles leaving its platform and shifting to the aforementioned other platforms, due to censorship and fact-checking. Russia will use these other platforms for releasing mass amounts of bots or propaganda without the risk of having information claimed as false. The main election race will not be the only target. Russian intelligence officers will also target those who approve the President’s executive actions and motions. In the case of former Vice President Joe Biden winning, Russia would seek to push for Republican officials to prevent any rulings that may not serve Russian interests. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) will be targeted by Russian operatives, as gaining access to their information could reveal classified information that could be used as counterintelligence. Despite the Russian support of President Trump, U.S. intelligence officials claimed that Putin was supporting Senator Bernie Sanders, who had quickly dismissed his approval of receiving foreign aid to meddle in any election.2 If Russia targeted Senator Sanders, it would be to divide his followers and manifest chaos between the parties. On November 2, 2020, the NordVPN company released information that “researchers commissioned by the firm have observed a huge increase in the number of brute-force attacks against servers in the U.S. which spiked by 98 percent.”3 Russia has put little effort into concealing its attempt to affect the election, as these researchers determined over half of the cyber-attacks came from one network in Petersburg, Russia.4 Attacking the infrastructure through servers disrupts travel and internet access, both of which are often used during an election. The election day attacks have been reported to be minimal, and Russia is monitoring online content. The main concern lies in the days following the election, as President Trump continues to claim the election was won by fraud. Russia will use this same narrative to sow discontent and chaos in the United States. Russian intelligence on the election includes voter registration data and partisanship. Dating back to the 2016 election, Russia has been using its cyber capabilities with states encountering data breaches and the allegations deriving from the Mueller investigation. This indicates that Russia is capable of directly targeting individuals online which results in bot scams, propaganda targeting, and identity theft. The propaganda can be aimed at any of the political parties, and fake accounts that mimic or suggest political affiliation with a revealing identity is used. In the example below,5 Iowa.patriot aligns himself with the right-wing ideology as many groups such as The Proud Boys use the word patriot often. Mass propaganda will fuel political conversation, in which the opposing party would find this to be absurd. The FSB, GRU, and Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) all rely on cyber hacker organizations such as the Internet Research Agency to continue exhausting the countered cyber efforts by U.S. intelligence officers. Another propaganda target will be on the issues of racism. Following the election, right-wing platforms have been supporting the idea of a second Civil War. Black Lives Matter content on social media has been amplified by Russian bots, with the goal of creating a race division. As displayed below, Russian cyber tactics can also involve the creation of pages that may be used as an advertisement.6 The Russian response to the current election is expected to be aligned with their goals. According to a blog, the head of Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) says he expects divisions in American society to be aggravated by the presidential election.7 The leader of the SVR views the chaos to be a social crisis--and it could be if both political parties continue to instigate violence during a pandemic that is increasing at a rate of 100,000 cases per day. In turn, Russian hackers have been targeting the health care system, in an attempt to shut down whole hospitals and cause care to be hindered to its patients. The purpose of targeting hospitals is intended to coincide with the election’s outcome, as are the spread of theories regarding wearing masks. Russia has targeted racism, health care, and the foundations of the U.S. government by manipulating the network and social media platforms and will persist to watch “social unrest.” Citations
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